Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210708 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.20     80.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    150.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  25.0  22.3  30.4  54.0  73.1  68.9  42.8  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.8  57.0  39.2  27.8   7.3   3.4   0.9   0.1  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0 123.0  41.0  75.0  41.0  31.0   1.0  10.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  67.0  63.0  54.0  49.0  58.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.0  45.0  15.0  26.0 -13.0 -69.0 -89.0  -3.0 VU VU  U VU VF VF VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons