Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210708 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.50     79.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  21.4  25.2  40.8  59.5  68.3  67.8  29.4  N  N  N VU VU VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         57.0  40.0  28.4  17.0   7.7   1.1   0.7   1.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   140.0  45.0  88.0  60.0  41.0  25.0  13.0  13.0 VF  N  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  67.0  64.0  58.0  54.0  51.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  39.0   1.0  24.0  37.0  -2.0 -79.0   8.0   3.0 VU  N VU VU  N VF  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons