Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210709 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.90     77.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  27.4  40.0  43.7  67.4  74.0  56.6  56.6  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.6  25.8  10.9   2.3  -1.4  -4.3  -4.7  -4.7  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  77.0  45.0  45.0  41.0  15.0 -19.0 -19.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  56.0  52.0  47.0  49.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  23.0  27.0 -14.0 -34.0-115.0  -5.0  -5.0  U VU VU VF VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons