Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210709 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.40     75.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  38.8  41.3  60.3  68.9  67.8  44.8  44.8  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         25.2  11.3   2.2   2.7  -4.3  -4.6  -3.9  -3.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  80.0  53.0  27.0  27.0 -21.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  55.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  16.0 -17.0 -32.0 -89.0 -56.0   7.0   7.0  U  U VF VF VF VF  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons