Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210709 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.20     73.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    152.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.8  43.6  56.8  66.8  71.8  59.7  26.1  26.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         12.0   2.7   2.5  -1.3  -4.3  -4.7  -3.7  -3.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0  68.0  26.0  29.0   9.0  17.0  29.0  29.0  F  N  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  51.0  47.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  -7.0 -18.0 -65.0-129.0 -38.0   0.0   0.0  U  F VF VF VF VF  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons