Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062021 210810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30     61.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  14.5  12.4  18.7  22.5  20.5  15.9  28.3  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  49.0  70.0  48.0  22.0  28.0  45.0  42.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  38.0   7.0   1.0  52.0 -10.0  10.0  38.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  56.0  59.0  62.0  63.0  66.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   5.0   3.0   1.0  10.0  -2.0   0.0 -13.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.2%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%       20.6%       12.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        8.5%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        8.5%        4.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        8.5%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h        5.2%       23.1%       14.1%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%        8.5%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h       10.9%       14.7%       12.8%
 70kt / 48h        5.7%        7.8%        6.7%
 65kt / 72h       18.9%       19.4%       19.2%