Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062021 210810 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     64.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  21.9  27.1  23.8  26.1  20.3  31.8  22.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  50.0  33.0  22.0  32.0  45.0  42.0  51.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0   0.0  22.0  39.0  -9.0  23.0   9.0  21.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  54.0  55.0  59.0  62.0  63.0  65.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0  16.0  15.0  -5.0  -1.0 -14.0  -2.0  N  N  U  U  F  N VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        3.6%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%       22.1%       14.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        9.2%        5.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        9.2%        4.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        7.8%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       25.1%       13.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%       10.1%        5.7%
 55kt / 48h        6.5%       14.0%       10.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.8%        8.0%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h       12.4%       18.3%       15.3%