Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062021 210811 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70     67.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  22.0  23.0  28.9  22.6  29.4  18.1  27.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  22.0  21.0  29.0  43.0  41.0  48.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  22.0  50.0  25.0   1.0  -5.0 -10.0  32.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  65.0  66.0  69.0  66.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   9.0   8.0   2.0   2.0 -13.0  -2.0 -13.0  U  U  U  N  N VF  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.5%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       14.3%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        5.0%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        5.0%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        5.0%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%       15.4%        9.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        4.6%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        7.0%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        3.7%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        6.3%       10.7%        8.5%