Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062021 210812 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     71.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  27.8  21.2  22.7  26.3  24.0  22.7  28.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  36.0  42.0  49.0  45.0  65.0  62.0  43.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  27.0   3.0   2.0   6.0  36.0  23.0  26.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  62.0  66.0  66.0  69.0  67.0  68.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   1.0   0.0  -5.0  -4.0  -7.0  -1.0  -4.0  U  N  N  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.3%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.1%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        3.9%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h       12.0%        7.7%        9.8%