Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062021 210812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     74.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  23.7  27.8  24.7  24.7  19.5  30.0  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  50.0  48.0  47.0  71.0  69.0  64.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  34.0   0.0  11.0  26.0  13.0  25.0  -3.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  69.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0 -12.0 -13.0  -3.0 -11.0  -4.0  -6.0   4.0  N  F VF  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        6.7%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        9.2%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        1.9%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        5.7%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        3.3%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h       16.2%       12.3%       14.2%