Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062021 210813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30     75.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  23.3  21.6  24.2  17.6  23.9  19.3  31.9  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  49.0  47.0  59.0  73.0  47.0  65.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  -5.0  13.0  28.0   0.0  23.0  35.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  67.0  67.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -3.0  -5.0  -9.0  -3.0   0.0   4.0   4.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       14.4%        8.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        4.6%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        4.6%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        4.0%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%       21.5%       12.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        7.4%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h       10.6%       14.0%       12.3%
 70kt / 48h        5.0%        9.6%        7.3%
 65kt / 72h       22.2%       23.8%       23.0%