Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062021 210813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     76.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  22.1  25.1  23.9  16.9  25.9  24.4  28.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  44.0  56.0  71.0  55.0  48.0  37.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  25.0  37.0  -3.0  23.0  28.0  57.0  62.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  67.0  63.0  67.0  63.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0 -13.0  -7.0  -1.0  -3.0   9.0   5.0  N  F VF  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        7.6%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       12.1%        7.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        3.3%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.6%        7.0%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        4.3%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h       14.4%       12.6%       13.5%