Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062021 210814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50     80.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  20.6  15.8  24.3  20.7  28.6  20.4  33.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  57.0  46.0  38.0  39.0  29.0  27.0  29.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0 -15.0  11.0   1.0  -7.0  53.0  51.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  69.0  72.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0   5.0   5.0  10.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.9%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%       16.9%       10.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        6.1%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        6.1%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%       19.0%       10.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        6.9%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        9.8%        7.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        6.0%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        8.0%       14.1%       11.0%