Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062021 210818 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.80     83.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  30.4  30.6  31.2  31.4  23.5  22.2  22.2  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.0  91.5  81.7  73.2  57.4  44.6  32.7  32.7  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  32.0  40.0  -3.0  21.0  25.0   6.0   6.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  57.0  57.0  64.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  20.0  24.0  14.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0 VU VU VU  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons