Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062021 210818 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.90     81.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.7  37.0  36.2  32.2  26.8  22.9  27.3  27.3  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.4  70.9  65.7  60.0  49.1  37.7  29.6  29.6  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  33.0 -31.0  29.0  20.0  33.0 -12.0 -12.0  N  N VU  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  60.0  66.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  12.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   6.0   6.0 VU  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons