Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072021 210813 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20     48.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.0   9.9   9.0   8.8  13.5  21.3  14.6  22.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  28.0  36.0  34.0  49.0  28.0  45.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8 112.4 120.7 127.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0 -23.0   3.0  16.0  42.0  28.0  63.0  50.0  U VU  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  56.0  61.0  71.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0  -9.0  -6.0  -7.0  N  F  F  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.6%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%       18.9%       11.2%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%        7.4%        5.5%
 55kt / 48h       12.8%       12.8%       12.8%
 70kt / 48h       12.8%        8.8%       10.8%
 65kt / 72h       26.9%       23.8%       25.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons