Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072021 210813 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30     50.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.4   8.2  10.2  11.1  19.8  16.3  20.3  21.8  F VF  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  37.0  40.0  57.0  23.0  52.0  43.0  23.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        114.4 122.9 129.6 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0   0.0  22.0  29.0  29.0  77.0  54.0  39.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  50.0  50.0  54.0  61.0  70.0  72.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -3.0  -7.0  -6.0  -9.0 -11.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       16.8%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        6.9%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        6.2%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        6.2%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%       29.5%       17.2%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%       13.8%        9.1%
 55kt / 48h       16.9%       16.6%       16.7%
 70kt / 48h       13.1%       15.7%       14.4%
 65kt / 72h       27.9%       32.5%       30.2%