Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072021 210814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60     53.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.8  10.4  10.3  12.9  25.1  16.1  23.5  20.6  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  44.0  55.0  30.0  33.0  48.0  24.0  30.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  33.0  28.0  28.0  56.0  64.0  77.0  54.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  56.0  59.0  64.0  71.0  71.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -9.0  -6.0  -4.0 -11.0  -9.0 -12.0 -10.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.7%       27.6%       17.1%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%       12.8%        8.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%       12.8%        7.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       12.7%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h        6.1%       33.5%       19.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.3%       16.3%       10.3%
 55kt / 48h       18.5%       22.8%       20.6%
 70kt / 48h       11.3%       20.4%       15.8%
 65kt / 72h       28.1%       37.1%       32.6%