Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072021 210817 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40     77.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  15.2  20.3  15.3  19.5  22.8  20.7  23.8  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  88.0  84.0  85.0  41.0  30.0  29.0  47.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  37.0  41.0  48.0  31.0  25.0  19.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  54.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -11.0 -15.0  -9.0 -13.0  -9.0 -14.0  -3.0  F  F VF  F VF  F VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.7%       22.6%       19.1%
 25kt / 24h       50.3%       68.8%       59.6%
 30kt / 24h       35.3%       56.8%       46.1%
 35kt / 24h       23.5%       56.8%       40.1%
 40kt / 24h       15.6%       55.8%       35.7%
 45kt / 36h       38.1%       70.2%       54.2%
 55kt / 36h       28.1%       54.5%       41.3%
 55kt / 48h       35.0%       44.5%       39.7%
 70kt / 48h       23.3%       39.9%       31.6%
 65kt / 72h       31.3%       45.0%       38.2%