Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072021 210818 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30     78.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  18.2  14.3  12.1  23.7  15.8  28.3  23.3  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  85.0  81.0  84.0  34.0  46.0  29.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  42.0  19.0  29.0   4.0  27.0  19.0  43.0  U  N  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  64.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  -4.0 -12.0  -7.0  -6.0  -2.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.4%       18.3%       14.8%
 25kt / 24h       46.8%       66.4%       56.6%
 30kt / 24h       31.8%       57.0%       44.4%
 35kt / 24h       25.4%       57.0%       41.2%
 40kt / 24h        7.6%       54.2%       30.9%
 45kt / 36h       26.9%       54.7%       40.8%
 55kt / 36h       17.9%       35.9%       26.9%
 55kt / 48h       26.6%       40.6%       33.6%
 70kt / 48h       14.8%       26.4%       20.6%
 65kt / 72h       21.0%       29.4%       25.2%