Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072021 210818 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70     80.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  17.1  15.2  21.8  24.0  24.4  23.5  23.1  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0  83.0  87.0  48.0   5.0  27.0  42.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  19.0  43.0  19.0  23.0  21.0  17.0  30.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  55.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  59.0  64.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -7.0  -7.0 -13.0  -6.0 -13.0  -5.0  -8.0  F  F  F VF  F VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.2%        7.7%        8.5%
 25kt / 24h       18.2%       31.9%       25.1%
 30kt / 24h       14.8%       19.9%       17.4%
 35kt / 24h        8.0%       19.9%       14.0%
 40kt / 24h        8.0%       19.9%       14.0%
 45kt / 36h       13.9%       18.6%       16.3%
 55kt / 36h        8.0%        6.6%        7.3%
 55kt / 48h       12.1%       12.6%       12.3%
 70kt / 48h        6.3%        6.0%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h       12.8%       11.8%       12.3%