Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072021 210818 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60     83.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  22.8  29.7  22.0  19.5  20.7  26.8  21.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  49.0  26.0  20.0  30.0  43.0  38.0   5.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  18.0  11.0  19.0  34.0  41.0  12.0  56.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  56.0  59.0  58.0  63.0  66.0  73.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -13.0  -8.0  -7.0 -19.0  -2.0  -5.0 -11.0  F VF  F  F VF  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       71.9%       49.9%       60.9%
 25kt / 24h       65.9%       71.0%       68.5%
 30kt / 24h       65.9%       70.7%       68.3%
 35kt / 24h       65.9%       70.7%       68.3%
 40kt / 24h       46.9%       70.7%       58.8%
 45kt / 36h       39.0%       53.9%       46.4%
 55kt / 36h       25.3%       37.3%       31.3%
 55kt / 48h       15.8%       32.4%       24.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.5%       18.3%       11.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%       13.9%        8.6%