Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072021 210819 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50     89.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  17.8  22.7  19.5  20.9  19.9  19.8  19.8  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  29.0  33.0  40.0  16.0   9.0  14.0  14.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0 -16.0 -22.0 -10.0 -23.0  45.0  54.0  54.0  U  U VU  U VU  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  57.0  62.0  62.0  70.0  73.0  73.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0 -13.0  -5.0   0.0  -8.0  -3.0  -5.0  -5.0  N VF  F  N  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        3.0%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.4%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        1.9%        2.2%