Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072021 210820 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     91.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  25.0  20.9  22.5  25.0  16.6  16.6  16.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  33.0  42.0  43.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0 -18.0  -5.0  -4.0   7.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  60.0  60.0  65.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -6.0   0.0  -4.0 -11.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.6%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        7.7%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        3.8%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        3.8%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        3.8%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        3.2%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        4.0%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        3.1%        2.3%