Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082021 210816 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.60     62.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.7  11.4  15.1  17.3  16.8  26.4  31.6  36.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  26.0  26.0  25.0  25.0  27.0  34.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 122.9 125.1 127.3 127.3 127.3 129.6 125.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0  -7.0 -32.0 -60.0  -9.0 -30.0 -30.0  -5.0  U  U VU VU  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  50.0  51.0  53.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%       11.6%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        5.0%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.7%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        3.7%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       23.3%       13.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.7%        9.7%        6.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%        3.6%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        6.0%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        6.8%        4.6%