Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082021 210817 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.40     64.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  21.4  24.9  30.5  31.2  29.6  32.6  32.5  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  28.0  34.0  37.0  27.0  24.0  23.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 109.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -67.0 -11.0 -11.0 -28.0 -50.0  21.0 -15.0  48.0 VU  U  U VU VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  49.0  50.0  49.0  52.0  56.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -5.0  -4.0  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        4.6%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%       14.5%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        7.2%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        7.2%        5.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        7.2%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        7.5%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        2.1%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        3.5%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%