Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082021 210818 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.20     64.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  25.4  31.4  30.5  32.3  33.6  31.7  35.8  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  30.0  36.0  34.0  30.0  24.0  23.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 102.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   9.0   0.0 -40.0  39.0  -8.0  15.0   4.0  U  U  U VU  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  55.0  58.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0   4.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.8%        6.0%        7.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.4%       14.9%       10.6%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%        8.3%        7.4%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%        8.3%        6.5%
 40kt / 24h        4.1%        8.3%        6.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%        7.6%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        2.1%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%