Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082021 210818 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.10     65.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  28.4  30.0  30.4  31.8  30.6  31.8  28.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  35.0  33.0  31.0  27.0  23.0  23.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0 102.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0 -30.0 -42.0 -35.0  36.0  -8.0  14.0  32.0  U VU VU VU  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  64.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -2.0  -3.0  -7.0  -2.0  -4.0  13.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        2.3%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        7.2%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        3.1%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        3.1%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        3.1%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        3.0%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%