Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082021 210818 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.90     67.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  31.9  33.3  31.1  30.5  27.0  20.1  18.5  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  33.0  31.0  29.0  26.0  26.0  29.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3  97.3  97.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -55.0 -39.0 -14.0  46.0  -2.0  -5.0  42.0  88.0 VU VU  U  N  U  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  56.0  61.0  65.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0  -8.0  -4.0  -4.0  11.0   4.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.8%        4.7%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%       14.6%       10.6%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%        8.5%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.6%        8.5%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        7.2%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%        6.2%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        1.8%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        3.4%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        2.4%        1.4%