Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082021 210819 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.60     71.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.8  30.1  26.5  23.8  18.6  15.8  19.5  18.7  U  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  24.0  25.0  26.0  25.0  16.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 102.3 100.1  72.7  35.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0 -10.0  -9.0  31.0  22.0  49.0  35.0  44.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  52.0  56.0  60.0  64.0  66.0  65.0  69.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0   9.0   7.0  -6.0   4.0  F  F  N  N  U  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.2%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        7.9%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.5%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.5%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        2.9%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        4.3%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        4.2%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%