Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082021 210820 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.70     72.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  27.4  22.9  25.6  19.1  19.0  22.0  18.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  26.0  27.0  29.0  29.0  15.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 109.3 104.6 100.1  91.5  45.5  24.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   1.0  21.0   6.0  20.0  48.0  30.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  56.0  58.0  61.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0   0.0   4.0  11.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.2%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        7.4%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.2%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        3.9%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        3.1%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%