Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00     80.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  20.4  22.0  22.2  14.8  17.6  17.0  22.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  66.0  66.0  81.0  92.0 128.0  70.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  F VF  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  66.0  52.0  61.0  23.0  -3.0  28.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  68.0  70.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  10.0   9.0  10.0  -2.0  10.0   1.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        3.2%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h       12.1%       26.1%       19.1%
 30kt / 24h        6.9%       11.0%        8.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%       11.0%        6.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       11.0%        6.2%
 45kt / 36h       17.5%       35.8%       26.6%
 55kt / 36h       10.8%       14.8%       12.8%
 55kt / 48h       38.7%       29.7%       34.2%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       19.3%       22.0%
 65kt / 72h       61.2%       43.4%       52.3%