Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50     80.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  20.7  22.3  19.1   8.6  26.3  11.6  32.2  F  N  N  N  F  N  F  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  68.0  86.0 118.0 100.0 122.0  43.0   7.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0 104.0  77.0  37.0  70.0  -6.0  63.0  43.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   9.0   7.0   3.0   1.0  12.0   2.0  15.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.5%        8.4%        9.0%
 25kt / 24h       34.8%       50.7%       42.8%
 30kt / 24h       20.7%       29.1%       24.9%
 35kt / 24h       11.1%       29.1%       20.1%
 40kt / 24h       11.1%       29.1%       20.1%
 45kt / 36h       41.6%       64.3%       52.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       39.9%       19.9%
 55kt / 48h       50.9%       46.1%       48.5%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       33.4%       29.1%
 65kt / 72h       59.4%       45.7%       52.5%