Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     81.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  20.9  17.4  13.0  13.7  23.5  21.0  22.7  F  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  88.0 114.0 100.0 140.0  87.0  42.0   7.0  N  F  F  F VF  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  64.0  36.0  63.0  46.0  11.0  34.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  67.0  65.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   0.0   3.0   6.0   1.0   6.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.0%       16.6%       16.8%
 25kt / 24h       54.3%       67.5%       60.9%
 30kt / 24h       40.3%       53.2%       46.8%
 35kt / 24h       25.2%       53.2%       39.2%
 40kt / 24h       25.2%       53.2%       39.2%
 45kt / 36h       55.1%       71.3%       63.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       51.5%       25.8%
 55kt / 48h       51.2%       52.7%       52.0%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       35.4%       30.1%
 65kt / 72h       50.8%       41.0%       45.9%