Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210827 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60     82.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  18.9  12.9  10.1  26.5  12.6  29.6  20.7  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0 122.0  97.0 105.0 133.0  42.0  16.0   7.0  F  F  F  F VF  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  57.0  72.0  37.0   7.0  49.0  54.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  65.0  67.0  69.0  73.0  69.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   0.0   2.0   4.0  13.0   6.0  10.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       80.4%       62.5%       71.5%
 25kt / 24h       94.9%       93.1%       94.0%
 30kt / 24h       94.9%       93.1%       94.0%
 35kt / 24h       92.7%       93.1%       92.9%
 40kt / 24h       92.5%       92.2%       92.4%
 45kt / 36h       86.9%       85.9%       86.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       78.5%       39.2%
 55kt / 48h       51.7%       72.9%       62.3%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       50.7%       37.8%
 65kt / 72h       34.2%       35.7%       35.0%