Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50     83.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  14.0   9.4  14.7  20.6  18.4  21.7  28.8  N  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  123.0  93.0 108.0 145.0  77.0  44.0   7.0   7.0  F  F  F VF  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  52.0  54.0  26.0   8.0  39.0  32.0 109.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  67.0  68.0  71.0  71.0  73.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   8.0  13.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       70.0%       51.3%       60.7%
 25kt / 24h       90.2%       87.2%       88.7%
 30kt / 24h       90.2%       86.6%       88.4%
 35kt / 24h       87.5%       86.6%       87.1%
 40kt / 24h       68.1%       86.3%       77.2%
 45kt / 36h       74.8%       72.6%       73.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       57.8%       28.9%
 55kt / 48h       50.7%       59.6%       55.2%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       32.9%       28.8%
 65kt / 72h       27.4%       22.5%       24.9%