Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     84.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4   9.4  14.3  25.8  13.2  28.1  22.0  26.3  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   97.0 103.0 147.0 140.0  44.0  16.0   7.0   6.0  F  F VF VF  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  31.0  37.0  -3.0  53.0  41.0  55.0  30.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  72.0  68.0  71.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   6.0  10.0   4.0  17.0  12.0  18.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.9%       19.7%       20.8%
 25kt / 24h       46.9%       54.2%       50.6%
 30kt / 24h       43.2%       45.0%       44.1%
 35kt / 24h       26.9%       45.0%       35.9%
 40kt / 24h       26.9%       45.0%       35.9%
 45kt / 36h       43.4%       26.9%       35.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.4%        5.7%
 55kt / 48h       33.7%       23.1%       28.4%
 70kt / 48h       16.4%        4.2%       10.3%
 65kt / 72h       19.1%        5.2%       12.1%