Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40     85.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.8  16.7  24.9  20.5  18.7  21.3  31.9  21.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   99.0 142.0 154.0  77.0  45.0   7.0   7.0   6.0  F VF VF  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  82.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  42.0  -6.0  36.0  63.0  -6.0  99.0  16.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  67.0  71.0  70.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   7.0  12.0   4.0   9.0   6.0  11.0  16.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       57.2%       41.3%       49.3%
 25kt / 24h       66.6%       69.5%       68.0%
 30kt / 24h       66.6%       65.6%       66.1%
 35kt / 24h       52.6%       65.6%       59.1%
 40kt / 24h       46.5%       65.5%       56.0%
 45kt / 36h       55.1%       40.4%       47.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       21.6%       10.8%
 55kt / 48h       31.8%       29.0%       30.4%
 70kt / 48h       11.4%        5.9%        8.6%
 65kt / 72h        8.7%        5.2%        6.9%