Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60     86.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  26.1  23.2  17.2  29.4  24.2  29.0  30.7  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  139.0 127.0  57.0  41.0   7.0   7.0   6.0   6.0 VF  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  67.3  48.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0 -13.0   9.0  40.0  26.0  77.0  21.0  19.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  72.0  72.0  68.0  72.0  67.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  15.0   4.0   5.0  17.0   6.0  16.0  13.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       74.9%       46.7%       60.8%
 25kt / 24h       70.3%       64.1%       67.2%
 30kt / 24h       70.3%       60.7%       65.5%
 35kt / 24h       70.3%       60.7%       65.5%
 40kt / 24h       41.3%       59.9%       50.6%
 45kt / 36h       63.6%       37.9%       50.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       22.2%       11.1%
 55kt / 48h       12.4%       11.8%       12.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%