Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70     87.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  23.1  14.9  23.6  23.9  34.4  24.0  36.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  116.0  49.0  41.0  26.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   4.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  74.3  54.4  37.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   8.0   7.0   4.0  28.0  60.0  11.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  71.0  72.0  70.0  72.0  70.0  71.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   0.0   4.0  12.0   6.0  12.0  21.0  13.0  U  N  N  U  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.7%       34.8%       50.2%
 25kt / 24h       57.3%       53.9%       55.6%
 30kt / 24h       57.3%       50.3%       53.8%
 35kt / 24h       57.3%       50.3%       53.8%
 40kt / 24h       29.0%       49.1%       39.1%
 45kt / 36h       49.7%       27.4%       38.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.2%        7.1%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        7.1%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%