Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60     88.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  16.8  25.2  31.9  23.6  29.3  27.0  40.7  N  F  N  U  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  41.0  23.0   7.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   5.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  50.1  31.6  19.3  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  18.0  29.0   7.0  82.0  28.0  61.0   3.0  U  U  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  72.0  68.0  70.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  10.0  12.0   7.0  23.0  29.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  N VU VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       55.3%       25.5%       40.4%
 25kt / 24h       27.8%       27.4%       27.6%
 30kt / 24h       27.8%       23.0%       25.4%
 35kt / 24h       27.8%       23.0%       25.4%
 40kt / 24h       11.4%       21.1%       16.2%
 45kt / 36h       52.8%       17.1%       34.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%