Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.50     89.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  23.9  32.3  22.7  34.1  23.6  37.4  42.4  F  N  U  N  U  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  23.0   7.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   4.0   5.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  18.6   1.2  -5.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  25.0  26.0  28.0  72.0  23.0  30.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  70.0  73.0  73.0  70.0  61.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  14.0  13.0   9.0  13.0   9.0   3.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       34.2%       10.9%       22.6%
 25kt / 24h        8.3%        8.3%        8.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%