Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.20     90.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  34.4  22.8  27.4  25.3  27.3  36.0  51.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  32.3  11.6  -0.7  -5.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  16.0   7.0  81.0   8.0  46.0  24.0  45.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  72.0  73.0  66.0  66.0  59.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  13.0   7.0   7.0  15.0  16.0   2.0   6.0 VU  U  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.9%        2.5%        6.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%        3.4%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        1.8%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%