Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.90     90.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  23.9  25.8  32.7  20.7  27.5  35.8  50.4  U  N  N  U  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  41.5  24.4  17.7   8.6  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  14.0  83.0  81.0  29.0  24.0  35.0  12.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  71.0  72.0  68.0  67.0  62.0  54.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   3.0   4.0  12.0  10.0   9.0  -7.0 -13.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        0.1%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%