Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.70     90.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -60.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  25.7  30.9  26.2  29.2  31.8  43.9  47.6  N  N  U  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0  97.0  73.5  61.0  56.1  47.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  82.0  88.0  58.0  26.0  33.0 -10.0  25.0  N  N  F  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  52.0  46.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0  13.0  12.0  12.0  -4.0  -3.0   9.0  N  N  U  U  U  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%