Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50     90.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -65.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  31.3  27.1  22.1  29.7  34.7  41.4  42.5  N  U  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 117.3 102.4  94.8  87.7  81.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0  85.0  81.0  17.0  37.0  39.0   7.0  15.0  F  F  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  66.0  66.0  62.0  51.0  45.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  14.0  12.0  12.0   4.0  -1.0  -9.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%