Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.20     90.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  30.3  21.6  24.1  27.8  44.7  46.9  45.6  U  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 122.3 115.7 103.5  96.2  89.3  74.4  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0  67.0  44.0  31.0  22.0  12.0  26.0  81.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  56.0  48.0  45.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  15.0   6.0  17.0  -3.0   1.0   6.0  10.0 VU  U  N  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%