Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.00     89.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  23.2  21.5  24.0  29.6  44.3  47.1  46.8  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 129.6 120.7 116.5 104.8  99.4  88.0  69.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  24.0  10.0  15.0  30.0  11.0  41.0  28.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  64.0  61.0  49.0  47.0  43.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0   9.0  22.0  11.0 -10.0 -16.0   3.0 -17.0  U  U VU  U  F VF  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%