Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.80     89.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  22.6  26.6  29.4  37.1  42.5  42.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   4.0   5.0   3.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.3 123.6 117.4 111.6 108.0 104.4  81.7  72.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  19.0  18.0  12.0  32.0  -4.0  30.0  -5.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  58.0  52.0  44.0  41.0  42.0  47.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  23.0  17.0  -9.0 -15.0 -49.0  -8.0  49.0  U VU  U  F VF VF  F VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%