Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.60     88.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  22.5  24.4  28.5  41.1  46.8  55.8  64.5  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        128.6 122.4 118.5 114.8 109.4  99.6  75.9  59.2  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  18.0   4.0  29.0  32.0  38.0  11.0  29.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  55.0  50.0  41.0  42.0  43.0  50.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.0  18.0  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0   6.0   7.0  46.0 VU VU  N  F  F  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons